Facts and research − just «nice to have» in the USA?

With regard to the Paris Convention, as it stands, the earliest the United States could apply to withdraw would be after three years, which would be November 2019. However, the CEI has a trick up its sleeve for how the USA could withdraw even sooner. Former President Barack Obama passed the climate treaty in the Senate by not classifying it as a treaty. Trump wants to fix that: as a regular treaty, the agreement would have to be ratified in the Senate where its would most likely fall short of the necessary two-thirds majority.

Even if the United States were able to hold onto Paris, Trump could still sabotage its goals. «My concern is that the US will not fulfil its financial and technological contributions to supporting developing countries in climate protection and adaptation to climate change», says Anthony Patt from the Department of Environmental Systems Science at the ETH Zurich. «That would not necessarily comprise the climate agreement, but the support of the United States would be lost». That in turn could also inspire other countries to drop out of the agreement as well.

The CEI would also like to overturn the EPA’s Clean Power Plan (CPP). One of the functions of the CPP is to provide standards for the emission of  CO₂ and other pollutants from coal-burning power plants. «More lenient regulations for coal, gas and emissions standards for vehicles, as well as other subsidies, can make fossil fuels cheaper», said the climatologist Reto Knutti from the ETH Zurich. «That would make it unlikely for the US to achieve the planned emission reductions».

According to Knutti, one should not take this lightly; because of Trump, it will take at least another four or eight years to address the climate problem. Delays in climate protection by the US could make it impossible to reach the goal of  limiting warming to below two degrees of pre-industrial time, as Knutti recently proposed in «Nature Climate Change». «The decisions today have consequences in centruies to come and cannot be reversed so quickly».

ETH researcher Patt is of the opinion that the election of Donald Trump is a setback for climate protection, but not necessarily a disaster. Trump cannot prevent the individual states from continuing to promote renewable energies. He could however cut research funding. «Over the past eight years, the United States has played an important role in the development of cheap renewable energies,» says Patt. «Under Trump, Europe or Asia could take the lead. It is up to us to take this challenge.»

At the time, it is not clear what actions the Trump Government will take. Knutti does not want to assume the worst. The fact is, however, that many young American scientists are looking for alternatives. «Ultimately, it is not just about the climate and the environment, but about the much bigger question as to what role facts and research in such an administration will have.»

Source: external pageTages-Anzeiger on 18.1.2017 (in German)call_made