Reasoning about uncertainty
Characterizing uncertainty of scientific knowledge for the analysis and evaluation of decision alternatives is a challenging task in environmental research. «The Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis. Reasoning about Uncertainty» is the first comprehensive presentation of argument-based methods in philosophy.
Imagine you had to do long-term projections of regional trends in extreme weather and their impacts. Often, it is not possible to fulfil the high demands on the information input for standard methods of policy analysis such as risk analysis or cost-benefit analysis. When traditional methods are insufficient or inapplicable, argument-based tools for decision analysis based on insights from philosophy and argumentation theory can provide decision support on a systematic methodological basis.
Reasoning with argument-based tools
An argument consists of an inference from one or several premises to a conclusion. Argument analysis scrutinizes whether or to which extent the conclusion is supported by the premises. To this end, argument analysis identifies the positions in a debate as well as the range of possible reasons that may speak for or against these positions. It furthermore reconstructs reasons and positions as inferences from premises to conclusions and assesses whether inferences are correct.
Argument-based tools for decision analysis
The concept of argument analysis is wide and covers a large and open-ended range of methods and tools, including tools for conceptual analysis, structuring decisions, assessing arguments, and evaluating decision options. Argument-based tools can be used to systematize deliberations if, for instance, probabilities or values are undetermined or further information is lacking, uncertain or contested, for instance information about what options are available or how to frame those options and what their potential consequences may be.
How this book came about
«It was in the course of work on justified choice among policy options in TUMSS (Towards an Improved Understanding of Methane Sources and Sinks and their Role in the Past, Present and Future Climate) (2005-2008), a research project at ETH with Nina Buchmann and Thomas Peter as principal investigators, that I became aware why alternatives to traditional policy analysis are needed», says Getrude Hirsch-Hadorn, who has pubished the book with Sven Ove Hansson from KTH Stockholm. They brought together scholars from Europe and the United States and provided some impetus for the further development of these efforts.
The book contains 353 pages and is also a good read for readers without background in philosophy. It provides an introduction to the argumentative approach in policy analysis as well as a series of chapters on different argument-based methods, followed by several case studies about flood risk governance, financial crisis, climate geoengineering, nuclear waste and synthetic biology. These case studies show what argument-based instruments are and how they can be used to systematize discussions.
Hansson, Sven Ove; Hirsch Hadorn, Gertrude (eds). 2016. external pageThe Argumentative Turn in Policy Analysis. Reasoning about Uncertainty
Herausgeber: external pageSven Ove Hansson,Gertrude Hirsch Hadorn
Institute for Environmental Decisions (IED), Environmental Philosophy, Research (englisch)